Research & Publications Office to host seminar on ‘Do Bond Investors Hedge Geopolitical Risk?’ on 10 June
The talk will be delivered by Prof. Prasad Hegde, Auckland University of Technology Business School
6 June, 2025, Bengaluru: The Office of Research and Publications (R&P) will host a seminar on, ‘Do Bond Investors Hedge Geopolitical Risk?’, to be led by Prof. Prasad Hegde, Auckland University of Technology Business School (Finance & Accounting area), at 12 pm on 10th June 2025.
Abstract: How corporate bond investors respond to geopolitical risk (GPR), is a question addressed by the researchers who analyze the relationship between firms’ sensitivity to GPR, or GPR beta, and subsequent bond returns. Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regressions and robust fixed effects panel regressions show significant negative relationship between GPR beta and subsequent bond returns, implying that bonds with high covariance to GPR risk earn lower returns next period. The results are also economically significant, implying that a one-sigma increase in the geopolitical risk beta is associated with an 8% to 9% drop in annual bond returns. High GPR beta bonds generate higher returns during GPR stress periods thereby serving as effective hedging instruments and therefore earn negative premiums due to the hedging effect. The staggered difference-in-differences analyses further reveal that the hedging demand for high GPR-beta bonds is greater following periods of heightened geopolitical conflicts, and the results remain robust to placebo test.
Cross-sectionally, the researchers find that the risk premium as captured by the negative GPR beta bonds is larger for firms with high downside risk, and in times of high volatility and economic uncertainty, and for firms with higher international exposure, greater supply chain stress, and increased credit risk. The results are robust to various tests, including alternative GPR indices and GPR beta estimators, and inclusion of firm level political risk. Collectively, the findings imply that when fixed-income investors are concerned about GPR, they shift investments towards high GPR-beta bonds accepting lower returns to better hedge against geopolitical events, supporting the risk premium or hedging hypothesis.
Speaker Profile: Prof. Prasad is a Senior Lecturer in the Finance Department at Auckland University of Technology (AUT) Business School. Prior to joining AUT, he obtained his PhD from Purdue University, USA. Prior to academia, he worked as a Research Associate at IIM Bangalore and as an equity analyst at a buy-side fund (STCI Finance Ltd., an RBI subsidiary) in India. His research interests span topics in empirical finance such as institutional trading behavior, role of Board of Directors in corporate governance, investments and empirical asset pricing. He also holds Financial Risk Management (FRM) certification awarded by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) and is a CFA Level II candidate. Prof. Prasad, with his co-authors, has developed an economic policy uncertainty index for New Zealand.
Webpage Link: https://academics.aut.ac.nz/prasad.hegde
Research & Publications Office to host seminar on ‘Do Bond Investors Hedge Geopolitical Risk?’ on 10 June
The talk will be delivered by Prof. Prasad Hegde, Auckland University of Technology Business School
6 June, 2025, Bengaluru: The Office of Research and Publications (R&P) will host a seminar on, ‘Do Bond Investors Hedge Geopolitical Risk?’, to be led by Prof. Prasad Hegde, Auckland University of Technology Business School (Finance & Accounting area), at 12 pm on 10th June 2025.
Abstract: How corporate bond investors respond to geopolitical risk (GPR), is a question addressed by the researchers who analyze the relationship between firms’ sensitivity to GPR, or GPR beta, and subsequent bond returns. Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regressions and robust fixed effects panel regressions show significant negative relationship between GPR beta and subsequent bond returns, implying that bonds with high covariance to GPR risk earn lower returns next period. The results are also economically significant, implying that a one-sigma increase in the geopolitical risk beta is associated with an 8% to 9% drop in annual bond returns. High GPR beta bonds generate higher returns during GPR stress periods thereby serving as effective hedging instruments and therefore earn negative premiums due to the hedging effect. The staggered difference-in-differences analyses further reveal that the hedging demand for high GPR-beta bonds is greater following periods of heightened geopolitical conflicts, and the results remain robust to placebo test.
Cross-sectionally, the researchers find that the risk premium as captured by the negative GPR beta bonds is larger for firms with high downside risk, and in times of high volatility and economic uncertainty, and for firms with higher international exposure, greater supply chain stress, and increased credit risk. The results are robust to various tests, including alternative GPR indices and GPR beta estimators, and inclusion of firm level political risk. Collectively, the findings imply that when fixed-income investors are concerned about GPR, they shift investments towards high GPR-beta bonds accepting lower returns to better hedge against geopolitical events, supporting the risk premium or hedging hypothesis.
Speaker Profile: Prof. Prasad is a Senior Lecturer in the Finance Department at Auckland University of Technology (AUT) Business School. Prior to joining AUT, he obtained his PhD from Purdue University, USA. Prior to academia, he worked as a Research Associate at IIM Bangalore and as an equity analyst at a buy-side fund (STCI Finance Ltd., an RBI subsidiary) in India. His research interests span topics in empirical finance such as institutional trading behavior, role of Board of Directors in corporate governance, investments and empirical asset pricing. He also holds Financial Risk Management (FRM) certification awarded by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) and is a CFA Level II candidate. Prof. Prasad, with his co-authors, has developed an economic policy uncertainty index for New Zealand.
Webpage Link: https://academics.aut.ac.nz/prasad.hegde