Predicting future events is a constant human endeavor.  In many domains, this necessarily involves subjective judgments of probabilities of future events, since well-defined data-generating processes often do not exist (Braun & Yaniv, 1999; Vaughan & Spouge, 2002).  For example, consider predicting the price of oil or the level of Dow Jones Industrial Average one year from today, or the outcome of a political process, or the risk of a climatic event.  It has been extensively shown that subjective assessments of probabilities of such uncertain events is often severely and systematically biased due to various cognitive factors such as representativeness, availability, anchoring, and so on, not just for the laymen but also for experienced “experts” (Tversky& Kahneman, 1974).