Centres Of Excellence

To focus on new and emerging areas of research and education, Centres of Excellence have been established within the Institute. These ‘virtual' centres draw on resources from its stakeholders, and interact with them to enhance core competencies

Read More >>

Faculty

Faculty members at IIMB generate knowledge through cutting-edge research in all functional areas of management that would benefit public and private sector companies, and government and society in general.

Read More >>

IIMB Management Review

Journal of Indian Institute of Management Bangalore

IIM Bangalore offers Degree-Granting Programmes, a Diploma Programme, Certificate Programmes and Executive Education Programmes and specialised courses in areas such as entrepreneurship and public policy.

Read More >>

About IIMB

The Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) believes in building leaders through holistic, transformative and innovative education

Read More >>

A spatio-temporal model for binary data and its application in analyzing the directions of COVID-19 spread

Anagh Chattopadhyay and Soudeep Deb
Journal Name
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis
Journal Publication
others
Publication Year
2024
Journal Publications Functional Area
Decision Sciences
Publication Date
Vol. 108, 2024, Pg. 823-851
Abstract

It is often of primary interest to analyze and forecast the levels of a continuous phenomenon as a categorical variable. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal model to deal with this problem in a binary setting, with an interesting application related to the COVID-19 pandemic, a phenomena that depends on both spatial proximity and temporal auto-correlation. Our model is defined through a hierarchical structure for the latent variable, which corresponds to the probit-link function. The mean of the latent variable in the proposed model is designed to capture the trend and the seasonal pattern as well as the lagged effects of relevant regressors. The covariance structure of the model is defined as an additive combination of a zero-mean spatio-temporally correlated process and a white noise process. The parameters associated with the space-time process enable us to analyze the effect of proximity of two points with respect to space or time and its influence on the overall process. For estimation and prediction, we adopt a complete Bayesian framework along with suitable prior specifications and utilize the concepts of Gibbs sampling. Using the county-level data from the state of New York, we show that the proposed methodology provides superior performance than benchmark techniques. We also use our model to devise a novel mechanism for predictive clustering which can be leveraged to develop localized policies.

A spatio-temporal model for binary data and its application in analyzing the directions of COVID-19 spread

Author(s) Name: Anagh Chattopadhyay and Soudeep Deb
Journal Name: AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis
Volume: Vol. 108, 2024, Pg. 823-851
Year of Publication: 2024
Abstract:

It is often of primary interest to analyze and forecast the levels of a continuous phenomenon as a categorical variable. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal model to deal with this problem in a binary setting, with an interesting application related to the COVID-19 pandemic, a phenomena that depends on both spatial proximity and temporal auto-correlation. Our model is defined through a hierarchical structure for the latent variable, which corresponds to the probit-link function. The mean of the latent variable in the proposed model is designed to capture the trend and the seasonal pattern as well as the lagged effects of relevant regressors. The covariance structure of the model is defined as an additive combination of a zero-mean spatio-temporally correlated process and a white noise process. The parameters associated with the space-time process enable us to analyze the effect of proximity of two points with respect to space or time and its influence on the overall process. For estimation and prediction, we adopt a complete Bayesian framework along with suitable prior specifications and utilize the concepts of Gibbs sampling. Using the county-level data from the state of New York, we show that the proposed methodology provides superior performance than benchmark techniques. We also use our model to devise a novel mechanism for predictive clustering which can be leveraged to develop localized policies.