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A survey of statistical and machine learning methods of quantile regression in time series and their suitability in predicting dengue outbreaks

Shreyash Surendrarao Deshmukh and Soudeep Deb
Journal Name
Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Journal Publication
others
Publication Year
2025
Journal Publications Functional Area
Decision Sciences
Publication Date
Vol. 8, 2025, Pg. 641-689
Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive review of various statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods for quantile regression in time series, focusing on their application in predicting dengue outbreaks. Given the increasing global incidence of dengue, the ability to forecast higher quantiles of cases is crucial for effective public health responses. The study emphasizes the limitations of traditional regression models, which typically predict average outcomes, and instead highlights the importance of probabilistic forecasting methods that account for uncertainty, offering more detailed predictions for extreme events. Methods such as quantile autoregression (QAR), quantile neural networks, penalized quantile regression and hybrid models are evaluated through simulations and are applied to a real-world dataset from a dengue-prone region. The study also discusses the potential of recent advances, including deep reinforcement learning, in quantile regression forecasts under various scenarios. The performances of these models are assessed using metrics like root mean squared error and continuous ranked probability score, with QAR consistently outperforming other models in real-life scenario and LASSO-based quantile regression providing excellent results in various simulation settings.

A survey of statistical and machine learning methods of quantile regression in time series and their suitability in predicting dengue outbreaks

Author(s) Name: Shreyash Surendrarao Deshmukh and Soudeep Deb
Journal Name: Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Volume: Vol. 8, 2025, Pg. 641-689
Year of Publication: 2025
Abstract:

This paper presents a comprehensive review of various statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods for quantile regression in time series, focusing on their application in predicting dengue outbreaks. Given the increasing global incidence of dengue, the ability to forecast higher quantiles of cases is crucial for effective public health responses. The study emphasizes the limitations of traditional regression models, which typically predict average outcomes, and instead highlights the importance of probabilistic forecasting methods that account for uncertainty, offering more detailed predictions for extreme events. Methods such as quantile autoregression (QAR), quantile neural networks, penalized quantile regression and hybrid models are evaluated through simulations and are applied to a real-world dataset from a dengue-prone region. The study also discusses the potential of recent advances, including deep reinforcement learning, in quantile regression forecasts under various scenarios. The performances of these models are assessed using metrics like root mean squared error and continuous ranked probability score, with QAR consistently outperforming other models in real-life scenario and LASSO-based quantile regression providing excellent results in various simulation settings.