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The Pricing of Earnings in the Presence of Informed Trades: A Simple GMM Approach

Murugappa (Murgie) Krishnan, Srinivasan Rangan and Nikhil Vidhani
2020
Working Paper No
607
Body

We build a Kyle-type pricing model with earnings and trading signals and estimate its deep parameters - the information advantages of traders and firms, the correlation between the firm and traders’ information, and the noise variance. Moment conditions derived from the pricing rule yield a simpler form than in prior work, and we validate our model both asymptotically and in a finite sample. For our sample from Indian markets, we find that traders know more about firm payoffs than firms themselves. For many firms, the market’s weight on unexpected earnings is negative, causing good news to be bad news.

Key words
Foreign Institutional Investors, GMM, Institutional Trading, Kyle Model, Earnings Announcements.
WP_No_607.pdf (549.4 KB)

The Pricing of Earnings in the Presence of Informed Trades: A Simple GMM Approach

Author(s) Name: Murugappa (Murgie) Krishnan, Srinivasan Rangan and Nikhil Vidhani, 2020
Working Paper No : 607
Abstract:

We build a Kyle-type pricing model with earnings and trading signals and estimate its deep parameters - the information advantages of traders and firms, the correlation between the firm and traders’ information, and the noise variance. Moment conditions derived from the pricing rule yield a simpler form than in prior work, and we validate our model both asymptotically and in a finite sample. For our sample from Indian markets, we find that traders know more about firm payoffs than firms themselves. For many firms, the market’s weight on unexpected earnings is negative, causing good news to be bad news.

Keywords: Foreign Institutional Investors, GMM, Institutional Trading, Kyle Model, Earnings Announcements.
WP_No_607.pdf (549.4 KB)