The Migrant’s Crisis: Who is the Real Collateral?
- By Deepti Sharma and Subhankar Saha --
- May 26, 2020
Migrants, Atma- Nirbhar Bharat, lockdown 4.0, Shramik Specials
Boosting the confidence of millions of people in India on 12th May, our honorable PM has given us the hope of building an Atma- Nirbhar Bharat (Self-Sufficient India). This reminds us of the importance of capability and freedom from Sen’s theory of development. However, the ability of people to become self-reliant is heterogeneous. The lockdown has instead curtailed the freedom of several penniless workers. As per Economic Survey 2017-18, there are14 Cr workers of Grey economy making a living from the urbanization of colonies, construction of skyscrapers and numerous diurnal activities, and so on. But, due to the lockdown, with no money and food left, many of these workers walk back to their hometowns on foot, trucks, rickshaws.
Several States had agreed to start Shramik trains and buses on 1st May to move stranded workers when this exodus of migrants came to light. Till now, more than 13 lakh migrants have reached UP, Bihar, WB, and Odisha through buses and trains. In the coming days, this number will rise with higher interstate mobility through trains and buses and, of course, the ones on foot.
But, can we say the movement of migrants in special buses and trains has made the situation look better? Or has it mounted our worries of spreading the pandemic, especially in villages.
In this context, we explore the hypothesis of, whether movement of migrants in Shramik trains & inter-state buses has increased the number of daily confirmed cases in these four States. We compare the confirmed cases before and after the arrival of trains and buses with an assumption that a COVID-19 infected person takes 2-3 weeks to develop symptoms. Additionally, we have tracked changes in orange and green zones in these states, as pre-classified by the Ministry of Health, during the same period.
Source – https://www.kaggle.com
Figure 1: Movement in daily no. of confirmed cases before and after 1st May
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Source – www.covid19india.org
Figure 2: Changes in orange and green zones respectively from 01st May
Figure 1 shows high volatility in the daily number of confirmed cases from 4th May onwards in UP, Bihar, WB, and Odisha. Similarly, Figure 2 indicates a significant increase and decrease in the number of orange and green zones, respectively.
The possible reason for an increase in daily cases can be the ingress of asymptomatic workers from red zones of several parts of the country, along with existing positive cases in these States. A confirming statement by Health departments of UP and Bihar showed that 35% & 85% of total COVID-19 cases are of migrant workers reported after 1st May, respectively. Therefore, a coinciding factor of the migrant's movement led to an increase in the overall number of confirmed cases at an exponential rate.
The carrier of the virus can be anyone standing with others during mandatory physical registration, where workers run from pillar to post to complete official formalities or possibly present in buses and trains defeating the social distancing norms. These results are an indicator of aggravating health conditions in pre-categorized safe zones, including several village clusters, even in the stage of lockdown 4.0.
With a homecoming of more than 4 lakh workers in nearly 300 trains in these States, one can expect a faster growth in no. of cases. Presumably, the situation will be graver due to existing worrisome healthcare conditions in the villages and peri-urban areas. The challenging times of COVID-19 pandemic, effecting our cities will soon be in problem in rural India.
Author’s views are personal
Data Sources:
https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/budget2017-2018/es2016-17/echap12.pdf
https://www.kaggle.com/sudalairajkumar/covid19-in-india/data?select=StatewiseTestingDetails.csv
https://twitter.com/biharhealthdept/status/1263072534955806722?s=21
https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1263146546960334848?s=21
Deepti Sharma
Subhankar Saha