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On generalized geometric distributions and improved estimation of batting average in cricket

Shubhabrata Das
Journal Name
Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods
Journal Publication
others
Publication Year
2017
Journal Publications Functional Area
Decision Sciences and Information Systems
Publication Date
Vol. 46, Issue 6, 2017, Pg. 2736-2750
Abstract

Batting average is the most popular way of measuring a batsman's performance in cricket. However, in light of scores from not-out innings, the conventional way of computing the batting average is unsatisfactory from theoretical statistical perspective, as well as from intuitive and practitioner's point of view. We adopt alternative methods of calculating batting average, treating not-outs as right-censored data and using generalized class of geometric distributions (GGD) as models for the runs scored. In the proposed family of GGD, the generalization lies in the hazard of getting out possibly changing from one score to another. Each postulated structure of the hazards leads to a different member of the GGD family. Selection of appropriate member from the GGD family and maximum likelihood estimation of the hazard parameters in the model are discussed theoretically with illustrations. The proposed method subsumes the traditional average and product limit (Kaplan-Meier) estimate as the two extreme scenarios within this structure. We also discuss two alternative methods of estimating the true mean under the proposed framework and deliberate on issues while adopting these practices in practice.

On generalized geometric distributions and improved estimation of batting average in cricket

Author(s) Name: Shubhabrata Das
Journal Name: Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods
Volume: Vol. 46, Issue 6, 2017, Pg. 2736-2750
Year of Publication: 2017
Abstract:

Batting average is the most popular way of measuring a batsman's performance in cricket. However, in light of scores from not-out innings, the conventional way of computing the batting average is unsatisfactory from theoretical statistical perspective, as well as from intuitive and practitioner's point of view. We adopt alternative methods of calculating batting average, treating not-outs as right-censored data and using generalized class of geometric distributions (GGD) as models for the runs scored. In the proposed family of GGD, the generalization lies in the hazard of getting out possibly changing from one score to another. Each postulated structure of the hazards leads to a different member of the GGD family. Selection of appropriate member from the GGD family and maximum likelihood estimation of the hazard parameters in the model are discussed theoretically with illustrations. The proposed method subsumes the traditional average and product limit (Kaplan-Meier) estimate as the two extreme scenarios within this structure. We also discuss two alternative methods of estimating the true mean under the proposed framework and deliberate on issues while adopting these practices in practice.