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Predictability of Equity Risk Premium in Indian Equity Markets

V. Ravi Anshuman, Rajdeep Sharma, Prateek Jain and Arnab Biswas
2019
Working Paper No
596
Body

We show that the historical mean of the equity risk premium is consistently a more accurate out-of-sample predictor of future equity risk premium in Indian equity markets. Under certain variations of the in-sample period length, dividend payout and the mean combination forecast have better predictive power than the historical mean equity risk premium. Finally, we find that predictions based on more recent information are, on average, more accurate than those based on the entire history of observations. We estimate that the (geometric) average annual equity risk premium of NIFTY 500 index for the period June 2000 to March 2018 is 7.78%

Key words
equity risk premium, stock returns, forecasting, predicting returns, Indian market index, NIFTY, asset pricing
WP. No. 596.pdf (964.49 KB)

Predictability of Equity Risk Premium in Indian Equity Markets

Author(s) Name: V. Ravi Anshuman, Rajdeep Sharma, Prateek Jain and Arnab Biswas, 2019
Working Paper No : 596
Abstract:

We show that the historical mean of the equity risk premium is consistently a more accurate out-of-sample predictor of future equity risk premium in Indian equity markets. Under certain variations of the in-sample period length, dividend payout and the mean combination forecast have better predictive power than the historical mean equity risk premium. Finally, we find that predictions based on more recent information are, on average, more accurate than those based on the entire history of observations. We estimate that the (geometric) average annual equity risk premium of NIFTY 500 index for the period June 2000 to March 2018 is 7.78%

Keywords: equity risk premium, stock returns, forecasting, predicting returns, Indian market index, NIFTY, asset pricing
WP. No. 596.pdf (964.49 KB)