Prof. Ronit Mukherji, Ashoka University, and Prof. Samarth Gupta, IIM Calcutta, to deliver sessions on 19 March 2026

17 March, 2026, Bengaluru: The Economics area at IIM Bangalore will host a research seminar titled ‘Temperature Shocks and Household Consumption: The Role of Economic Sentiments’ delivered by Prof. Ronit Mukherji, Ashoka University, followed by a seminar on ‘Income Transfer Policies and Aggregate Welfare: Estimates from India’ to be delivered by Prof. Samarth Gupta, IIM Calcutta. The session are to be held on 19 March 2026, from 3.00 pm to 5.00 pm, in Classroom P-11 at IIMB.

Abstract (1):

The paper ‘Temperature Shocks and Household Consumption: The Role of Economic Sentiments’ identifies a novel channel through which temperature shocks affect household consumption: economic sentiments. Using quasi-experimental variation in unexpected heat exposure, we show that extreme heat significantly depresses households’ forward-looking beliefs about their personal economic prospects, independent of changes in income, health, or labour supply. These belief shocks, in turn, reduce durable purchase intentions and translate into lower realised durable consumption, while non-durable spending remains unaffected. By leveraging heat shocks as an instrument for sentiment, we provide causal evidence that temperature-induced belief distortions drive inter-temporal shifts in consumption. Effects are most pronounced among households in physically intensive occupations, underscoring the role of environmental exposure in shaping expectations and demand. Our findings advance the understanding of climate impacts on economic behaviour, revealing that temperature shocks influence consumption not only through realised economic constraints but also by altering expectations and confidence.

Abstract (2):

The paper ‘Income Transfer Policies and Aggregate Welfare: Estimates from India’ analyses the impact of income transfers on aggregate welfare, which depends on the

marginal propensity to consume. However, such parameters can vary substantially by social and demographic characteristics. In this paper, we develop lifecycle models for four different caste groups in India to derive MPC estimates. Using the model estimates, we assess the increase in aggregate welfare under counterfactual income transfer policies such as UBI, progressive transfers, and different variants of redistribution. Progressive transfers improve aggregate welfare the most, while redistribution based on social and economic characteristics outperforms redistribution based only on either of the criteria. Our results provide crucial insights for developing countries’ cash transfer policies.

Speaker profiles:

Ronit Mukherji is currently an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at Ashoka University. His research interests lie in Macroeconomics, Labour Economics, and Political Economy. He completed his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of British Columbia, Vancouver. Prior to that, he earned his M.Sc. in Economics from the University of Warwick and a B.Sc. in Economics from Presidency College.

Webpage link: https://ronitmukherji.com/teaching/

Samarth Gupta is currently an Assistant Professor in the Academic Group of Economics at IIM Calcutta. His research interests lie in Industrial Organization and Financial Inclusion.

Prior to this, he served as an Assistant Professor at the Amrut Mody School of Management, Ahmedabad University, and as an Associate Fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi. He has also worked as a Consultant with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Private Limited.

His research spans entrepreneurship, financial access, and firm behaviour in India, with publications in leading journals including the Journal of Development Economics, Small Business Economics, and the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Webpage link: https://www.iimcal.ac.in/users/samarthgupta