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Asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements: Evidence from options markets

Sumit Saurav, Sobhseh Kumar Agarwalla and Jayanth R Varma
Journal Name
American Business Review
Journal Publication
others
Publication Year
2024
Journal Publications Functional Area
Finance & Accounting
Publication Date
Vol. 27(2), November 2024, Pg. 459-487
Abstract

We use the Indian stock options market to study the evolution of uncertainty and asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements (EAs). We find that uncertainty (implied volatility) and asymmetric uncertainty (options skew) increase monotonically before the EA day and decrease after EA. Options volume (relative to spot and to futures) also exhibits similar behavior, suggesting that informed investors prefer options markets to spot and futures markets. Both options skew and put-to-call volume ratio can predict the sign of the EA surprise one day before EA, indicating that price discovery and information assimilation happen in the options market.

Asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements: Evidence from options markets

Author(s) Name: Sumit Saurav, Sobhseh Kumar Agarwalla and Jayanth R Varma
Journal Name: American Business Review
Volume: Vol. 27(2), November 2024, Pg. 459-487
Year of Publication: 2024
Abstract:

We use the Indian stock options market to study the evolution of uncertainty and asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements (EAs). We find that uncertainty (implied volatility) and asymmetric uncertainty (options skew) increase monotonically before the EA day and decrease after EA. Options volume (relative to spot and to futures) also exhibits similar behavior, suggesting that informed investors prefer options markets to spot and futures markets. Both options skew and put-to-call volume ratio can predict the sign of the EA surprise one day before EA, indicating that price discovery and information assimilation happen in the options market.