Centres Of Excellence

To focus on new and emerging areas of research and education, Centres of Excellence have been established within the Institute. These ‘virtual' centres draw on resources from its stakeholders, and interact with them to enhance core competencies

Read More >>

Faculty

Faculty members at IIMB generate knowledge through cutting-edge research in all functional areas of management that would benefit public and private sector companies, and government and society in general.

Read More >>

IIMB Management Review

Journal of Indian Institute of Management Bangalore

IIM Bangalore offers Degree-Granting Programmes, a Diploma Programme, Certificate Programmes and Executive Education Programmes and specialised courses in areas such as entrepreneurship and public policy.

Read More >>

About IIMB

The Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) believes in building leaders through holistic, transformative and innovative education

Read More >>

System Dynamics Integrative Modeling of the Diffusion Dynamics of Indian Telecom Sector

Prof. Dr. Sanjay Bhushan and Janat Shah
2010
Working Paper No
313
Body

In recent times, India has emerged as one of the fastest growing telecom markets in the world and witnessed a telecommunication revolution brought about by a collaboration of government, industry, and the scientific community. From a situation where an applicant had to wait three years to obtain a telephone connection to a position where telephone companies are wooing consumers, it has been a success of indigenous technology development and effective diffusion management.  Derived from the insight gained in the course of literature research and interaction with industry experts, in this paper, a system dynamics integrated model of Indian telecommunication sector (Mobile Telephony) has been calibrated to demonstrate the nature of interactions among system variables and the resultant outcome which assume degrees of importance at different stages of the diffusion/adoption process in the Indian telecom sector. From a supply chain perspective, the study has encompassed system modeling of the entire 'supply-line' of Telecom diffusion i.e. Supply-side dynamics (R&D, Infrastructure, Production & Promotion), Adoption-dynamics (Potential Adopters, Rate of Adoption and Number of Adopters) and Market-side dynamics (Subscription demand, Revenue and Profitability) The work done here proves how the application of system dynamics modeling and simulation can contribute in a meaningful way to improve the holistic understanding of the dynamic structural complexities and forces driving and arising from the supply line of telecom diffusion. Several model simulations show the potential of using system dynamics as a promising modeling approach to capture, integrate and predict the structural behavior of innovation diffusion process. In the end, a novel interface of neural net has been explored to perform sensitivity analysis and a scenario projection of multiple usage situations has also been conducted.

Key words
Supply-side dynamics ,Adoption-dynamics

System Dynamics Integrative Modeling of the Diffusion Dynamics of Indian Telecom Sector

Author(s) Name: Prof. Dr. Sanjay Bhushan and Janat Shah, 2010
Working Paper No : 313
Abstract:

In recent times, India has emerged as one of the fastest growing telecom markets in the world and witnessed a telecommunication revolution brought about by a collaboration of government, industry, and the scientific community. From a situation where an applicant had to wait three years to obtain a telephone connection to a position where telephone companies are wooing consumers, it has been a success of indigenous technology development and effective diffusion management.  Derived from the insight gained in the course of literature research and interaction with industry experts, in this paper, a system dynamics integrated model of Indian telecommunication sector (Mobile Telephony) has been calibrated to demonstrate the nature of interactions among system variables and the resultant outcome which assume degrees of importance at different stages of the diffusion/adoption process in the Indian telecom sector. From a supply chain perspective, the study has encompassed system modeling of the entire 'supply-line' of Telecom diffusion i.e. Supply-side dynamics (R&D, Infrastructure, Production & Promotion), Adoption-dynamics (Potential Adopters, Rate of Adoption and Number of Adopters) and Market-side dynamics (Subscription demand, Revenue and Profitability) The work done here proves how the application of system dynamics modeling and simulation can contribute in a meaningful way to improve the holistic understanding of the dynamic structural complexities and forces driving and arising from the supply line of telecom diffusion. Several model simulations show the potential of using system dynamics as a promising modeling approach to capture, integrate and predict the structural behavior of innovation diffusion process. In the end, a novel interface of neural net has been explored to perform sensitivity analysis and a scenario projection of multiple usage situations has also been conducted.

Keywords: Supply-side dynamics ,Adoption-dynamics