Research & Publications Office to host seminar on Predicting Propagation in Complex Service Systems
Prof. Vishwakant Malladi, ISB, to deliver the session on 22 April
08 April, 2026, Bengaluru: The Office of Research and Publications (R&P) at IIM Bangalore will host a seminar on ‘Predicting Propagation from Paths: A Parsimonious, Subordination-Based Framework’, to be led by Prof. Vishwakant Malladi, Operations Management, Indian School of Business, at 2.30 PM on 22 April 2026, in Classroom P-21.
Abstract:
Service systems such as healthcare and airline operations often exhibit strong interdependencies, where disruptions at one stage propagate downstream, creating delays and intertemporal correlations across components. Accurately predicting such propagation is critical for planning and real-time decision-making.
This study introduces a parsimonious stochastic framework, time-lagged partially subordinated Markov chains (TLPSMCs), which extends continuous-time Markov chains by incorporating a time-change mechanism that captures flexible intertemporal dependence while maintaining tractability. The framework characterizes intertemporal correlations, derives steady-state properties, and proposes a calibration algorithm to estimate parameters directly from data. It is further extended to multi-stage systems.
Focusing on prediction, the model is evaluated in a tandem queue and an airline network setting. In both cases, TLPSMC-based predictions of downstream congestion and delays outperform benchmark methods. The findings demonstrate that TLPSMCs offer a practical approach to modeling and forecasting system-wide disruptions, enabling more informed operational decision-making.
Speaker Profile:
Prof. Vishwakant Malladi is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management at the Indian School of Business. He earned his PhD in Risk and Operations Management from the University of Texas at Austin. His research focuses on risk modeling in high-dimensional systems, particularly using Lévy processes, and examines the role of risk and dependence in operations management problems such as inventory, reliability, and facility location.
Prior to academia, he worked as a Statistical Analyst at Fractal Analytics and as an Equity Research Analyst at Centrum Capital. He holds a B.Tech from IIT Bombay and an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad.
Webpage Link: https://discover.isb.edu/about/vishwakant-malladi
Research & Publications Office to host seminar on Predicting Propagation in Complex Service Systems
Prof. Vishwakant Malladi, ISB, to deliver the session on 22 April
08 April, 2026, Bengaluru: The Office of Research and Publications (R&P) at IIM Bangalore will host a seminar on ‘Predicting Propagation from Paths: A Parsimonious, Subordination-Based Framework’, to be led by Prof. Vishwakant Malladi, Operations Management, Indian School of Business, at 2.30 PM on 22 April 2026, in Classroom P-21.
Abstract:
Service systems such as healthcare and airline operations often exhibit strong interdependencies, where disruptions at one stage propagate downstream, creating delays and intertemporal correlations across components. Accurately predicting such propagation is critical for planning and real-time decision-making.
This study introduces a parsimonious stochastic framework, time-lagged partially subordinated Markov chains (TLPSMCs), which extends continuous-time Markov chains by incorporating a time-change mechanism that captures flexible intertemporal dependence while maintaining tractability. The framework characterizes intertemporal correlations, derives steady-state properties, and proposes a calibration algorithm to estimate parameters directly from data. It is further extended to multi-stage systems.
Focusing on prediction, the model is evaluated in a tandem queue and an airline network setting. In both cases, TLPSMC-based predictions of downstream congestion and delays outperform benchmark methods. The findings demonstrate that TLPSMCs offer a practical approach to modeling and forecasting system-wide disruptions, enabling more informed operational decision-making.
Speaker Profile:
Prof. Vishwakant Malladi is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management at the Indian School of Business. He earned his PhD in Risk and Operations Management from the University of Texas at Austin. His research focuses on risk modeling in high-dimensional systems, particularly using Lévy processes, and examines the role of risk and dependence in operations management problems such as inventory, reliability, and facility location.
Prior to academia, he worked as a Statistical Analyst at Fractal Analytics and as an Equity Research Analyst at Centrum Capital. He holds a B.Tech from IIT Bombay and an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad.
Webpage Link: https://discover.isb.edu/about/vishwakant-malladi